The tropical disturbance that has been slowly moving westward and heading toward the Caribbean has been designated by the NHCNHCNational Hurricane Center as Invest 96L as of 08_19/1800Z. This tropical disturbance was one of the waves that came of the edge of Africa but due to the very very air and some vertical shear, 96L never had a chance to try to develop into something tropical. The dry air and shear are abating and with an ULL to the NW of 96L, increased upper divergence is now allowing 96L to ventilate and possibly have an outflow for further development. I want to make it extremely clear that although 96L is looking much better, it is still way to early to determine exactly what the track and intensity of 96L will be. There has also been some discussion as to whether or not Invest 96L(pouch P17L) and Pouch 18L which is just east of Invest 96L and will the two be two separate entities or merge into one system. Again it is still too early as both disturbances are still somewhat disorganized right at the moment albeit 96L is slowly getting organized.
Credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division
Invest 96L is presently heading westward at around 15 MPH, and is being steered in the region of southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. If 96L continues the same speed, within 72-84 hours 96L should begin the feel a weakness in the ridge and head slightly WSW. This weakness in the ridge should be near or around the edge of the Bahamas or possibly a little later. Since 96L is still a tropical disturbance and has not even become a tropical depression, there are still too many variables so I want to exercise caution and not get ahead of ourselves and not make assumptions in what the forecast holds in the during the next 48-72 hours. If 96L continues to organize during the next day or so, an upper level anticyclone may park itself over 96L which should allow further intensification.
It would be unwise and irresposible for me to post any of the model forecasts, both track and intensity of 96L, at least for the time being. The different models are nothing but a tool for the hurricane specialists, nothing more, nothing less. I understand many want to see the different models, but the models change, sometimes with major shifts. People need to understand that the models have to taken with a grain of salt. Unless you have the skills in meteorology, be very careful as this inaccurate information has a snowball effect and causes a major headache for the NHC. When it looks as if the models begin to have a consensus, then I may post them. For now, will only post satellite imagery and any other graphics that might be useful.
Although care has been taken in preparing the information supplied through the Weather or Knot blog, Weather or Knot does not and cannot guarantee the accuracy of it. If you require an official forecast please contact your local National Weather Service Office or the National Hurricane Center.