Monthly Archives: November 2010

An Early End of Hurricane Season in Atlantic Basin?

Although Tropical Storm Tomas is still around after hitting Eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands in the southern Bahamas – it is moving away and that should be the end of the hurricane season. Officially the season does not end till November 30th. Hopefully, Tomas will be very last of any tropical cyclones. At the moment, I see no models forecasting tropical development. It is way to early to even project or forecast what the season will be like next year. Will we have a very strong La Niña and how will the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) fall into play?

IF this the last blog for the hurricane season, please be sure to continue to use the weather site The Coriolis Effect for both the winter and summer (Tropical) updates. For next hurricane season I hope to implement a daily tropical weather update screencast, a forum and anything I can come up with (or something users ask me to add if at all possible). This blog will continue, just with other categories.


Tropical Storm Tomas Reborn

After losing tropical storm status early in the morning, Tomas has been able to regain it’s structure and reorganized during the day and as of the 5PM advisory from the NHS, Tomas has been upgraded to Tropical Storm status. Now with Tomas reorganizing and with light vertical shear and warm SST’s, intensification is forecast. SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a 50% chance of 30 knot strengthening within the next 24 hours. An argument can be made that with the current organization of Thomas, that is a little too much. The new intensity forecast is a compromise between SHIPS and the LGEM model forecast. Although it is not out of the question but here is the possibility that Tomas may become a hurricane before land interaction stops any further intensification. After passing Hispaniola, southwesterly wind shear will cause Tomas to weaken.


Weakening Tropical Storm Tomas

Tropical Storm Tomas, once a category 2 storm, has been downgraded to a weak Tropical Storm and there is about another 24 hours before Tomas has any chance to restrengthen again. Tomas has been decoupled as the convection is about 100 miles to the east of the center. Westerly vertical shear is the main factor that is impacting Tomas. There is also a little dry air, but it is not as much as a factor. Both the Ships and LGEM model are forecasting that Tomas will strengthen again to a hurricane. A weakening low-mid level ridge to the north of Tomas will keep the storm on westward motion. In about 72-96 hours a large mid-tropospheric trough will be heading eastward into the Gulf of Mexico. The flow from the trough will turn Tomas north and northeast with an increase in forward speed.