Weakening Tropical Storm Tomas

Tropical Storm Tomas, once a category 2 storm, has been downgraded to a weak Tropical Storm and there is about another 24 hours before Tomas has any chance to restrengthen again. Tomas has been decoupled as the convection is about 100 miles to the east of the center. Westerly vertical shear is the main factor that is impacting Tomas. There is also a little dry air, but it is not as much as a factor. Both the Ships and LGEM model are forecasting that Tomas will strengthen again to a hurricane. A weakening low-mid level ridge to the north of Tomas will keep the storm on westward motion. In about 72-96 hours a large mid-tropospheric trough will be heading eastward into the Gulf of Mexico. The flow from the trough will turn Tomas north and northeast with an increase in forward speed.

Visible Satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas

AVN Satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas

Shear Map

Models for Tropical Storm Tomas

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