Although the 2012 hurricane season is not yet upon us, this is the time where we do need to see if any tropical systems might form. For a week or so, the GFS runs have been showing a system that might for in the western Caribbean, but lately the runs have backed off any development for now. Convection could be enhanced by a pulse from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which should be in that area some time in very late May and into the early June time frame. Other models are calling for a much slower progression of the MJO. So for now, we will just have to see if any development were to happen.
At the moment, for several days now, several models were suggesting that a surface low would develop along the south-eastern coast of the US as a trough “splits”. The low has developed and is now over water and Invest 93L was called up. Although the models did not support any tropical development, but “surprise” Tropical Storm Alberto was declared at 5PM. There is some shear but that is forecast to abate some. TS Albero is also have a lot of dry air intrusion in the eastern and southern quadrants. As TS Alberto heads west or southwestward, some of the dry air may diminish but the biggest problem for Alberto is a new low to the northeast. This low should begin to constrict and not allow any further development. Earlier during the day, the system was tilted and the mid-levels of the circulation were being left behind but that seems to be no longer the case. TS is expected to drift SW then turn NE with just a possible close brush near North Carolina. The storm itself is very small and this should just keep the storm to as nothing but a rain event with a few areas of tropical storm winds.
This is the time to start preparing for the 2012 Hurricane season. Have all your supplies and plans ready just in case. Don’t wait till until a storm may be headed in your way.