Tropical Storm Igor

Invest 91L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm status as of the 11AM Advisory. TS Igor came off Africa and was very healthy right from the beginning. Even before the upgrade, Igor had very good convection and the cyclonic turning was getting better each hour. At the present there is some easterly shear over Igor but shear will lift up and in a day or two the shear will be will then be light for a few days. This will allow intensification for days 2-4 and models are in agreement on this scenario. On day 5 shear is forecast to strengthen some and slow down further intensification.

A mid-level ridge in the eastern Atlantic is forecast to strengthen and this will keep TS Igor on a westerly track. This will also increase the forward speed of Igor. After a fews, a trough that is over the central Atlantic may cause the ridge to weaken and this may allow a more NW track. Beyond 5 days, any forecast would be prone to major error.

IR Satellite image of TS Igor

Shear Map of East Atlantic

Shear Map of West Atlantic

Models for TS Igor


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