Tropical Depression Lisa, Tropical Depression Fifteen, Ex-Julia

Tropical Storm Lisa has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. Although the deep convection has increased and has been better organized, and shear is still low – the dry air around Lisa is still a problem. Within 24-36 hours, Lisa should be in cooler SST’s along with an increase in shear. Lisa is forecast to continue the weakening trend and is forecast to be a post-tropical/remnant low in 120 hours.

ADDENDUM: as of the 5PM advisory from the NHC – Lisa has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lisa.

Visible Satellite image of Tropical Depression Lisa

Models for TD Lisa

A very bullish remnant low Julia has redeveloped but chances of it becoming anything tropical are very slim.

Visible Satellite image of remnant low Julia

Invest 95L which will probably be Tropical Depression Fifteen as I speak as the first recon report is finding 39 MPH winds at flight level but you have to adjust for the surface winds which is roughly 32 MPH. A special Advisory from the NHC will be issued at 2:00PM. By later today or early tomorrow I am sure Tropical Depression Fifteen will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew. Where this storm will have landfall is a big question mark. Some models still want it to make landfall closer to Honduras or Belize or will the other models want it make landfall somewhere further north in the Yucatan. To complicate things even more there is a possibility a new system might develop east of TD Fifteen and might be a part of the same gyre only to confuse the models even further. For the next 48 hours most do believe a W to WNW track is forecast for TD Fifteen. This a system that needs to be watched by all in the western Caribbean and all those in the Gulf states and especially Florida.

ADDENDUM: As of the 5PM advisory Tropical Depression Fifteen has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew.

Visible Satellite image of TD Fifteen

Visible Satellite image of TD Fifteen

NHC 5 Day Graphic

Models for TD Fifteen

GFS Model 216 Hours

Euro Model 192 hours


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