At least for now the tropics are somewhat quiet. There is a strong wave that is now moving into Central America. It won’t be able to develop while over land but once it emerges into the Pacific, the system may develop. There are a few models that are hinting that it will. Since most EPAC systems head west and don’t touch the US mainland, I mainly will be talking about the Atlantic basin.
A strong and organized wave has emerged off the coast of Africa. It is around 9 N latitude and that places well south of the SAL that has been in the Eastern Atlantic. The AEJ (African Easterly Jet) will help in building convection. There is a chance that it might develop and the GFS model thinks it just might do so. Â For now I would give it a 30% chance. As it heads west – chances will probably drop unless it can maintain the convection.