BOC

Invest 90L, Ex-Gaston

An area of disturbed weather in the BOC has now been designated as Invest 90L. This system was basically a part of the energy from the system in the Pacific TD-11-E. 90L is trying very hard to become something tropical in nature and it may become a tropical depression but there are some factors which are keeping it from developing quickly. In the last couple frames of the satellite loop, there is an area trying to rotate. If thus system can stay out in the waters for about 24-36 hours, it might have a chance to develop. If it starts to get close to the shore then the interaction with the land will just keep as an area of disturbed weather. In either case, the track is pretty simple, and because there is a high over Central Texas, this will be a system for Mexico.

This morning satellite imagery of Ex- Gaston did seem to indicate that Gaston was having problems but later satellite imagery is now seeing a much better system. Gaston is slowly pulling away from the dry air around it and convection has been trying to wrap around the west and south. Cyclonic turning is also much better improved. The TUTT near PR/Hispanolia is visibly far enough away from Gaston it does loop like a high between the two is beginning to form. If Gaston continues to improve during the day and the convection begins to wrap around the center, Gaston may be like the Phoenix, and regeneration may occur with Gaston within 24-48 hours. The models are showing that Gaston may be headed toward the Leeward Islands although there a few there are further south. If Gaston stays to the north , then the Bahamas and Florida may have to keep an eye out. If it goes south, then it may go through Hispanolia and possibly dissipate there due to the high mountain range.

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Invests 97L & 98L

The tropics are now heating up and becoming active.

An area in the BOC(Bay of Campeche) has become designated as Invest 98L. The satellite image does show an organizing system with very large amounts of convection along with an anticyclone over it. This also has SST’s of 28° Celcius and the anticyclone it is providing a very good outflow. 98L may have the potential to become Tropical Storm Bonnie. Invest 97L is not as organized as 98L due to moderate amounts of shear and dry air. 98L is currently heading NW-WNW and possibly inland within 72 hours.


 

As mentioned – 97L is having problems trying to organize. The data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet took samples of the enviroment around 97L and it indicated that the upper-level winds were not conducive for development at least for the moment. The enviroment will probably be changing and within 24-36 hours shear may relax as the upper level low to the north west will be retrograding to the west allowing for a better chance for 97L to develop. In fact, during the day today 97L looked like it was trying to develop a LLC(Low Level Circulation) but all the convection to the right side of the “LLC” was being sheared. The quadrants to the the south and west had no convection due to the dry air and shear. Dry air in the image below is the darker area.

Models seem to indicate that 97L will probably in the South Florida area, at least as Tropical Depression or posssibly as a Tropical Storm. Hurricane development is not indicated at this time.

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