euro model

Tropical Storm Lisa & Invest 95L

Tropical Storm Lisa way out in the Eastern Atlantic has been somewhat stationary or has drifted southeastward and the low-level center has been exposed. Tropical Storm Lisa is in an area of weak steering currents and is forecast to be drifting for the next 24-48 hours. Lisa is located within a COL which is an area between two high- and two low-pressure centers. After 48 hours a trough is expected to lift up northeastward and another ridge will build westward. This will allow Lisa to slowly move westward. At the moment shear over Lisa is light, but here is a lot of dry air around Lisa which is inhibiting or slowing further intensification. Since the shear is still low, there is the slight possibility of some intensification during the next 48 hours, but any intensification will be slow, if any. After the 48 hours, increasing shear is forecast. The forecast is for Lisa to weaken and there is the possibility it will just become an open wave.


Invest 95L is very disorganized and this will probably be this way until the system heads westward and gets to longitude 75W where there will be less interaction with South American coast. Shear will be light at that time and further development is forecast. There are two camps divided on where the system may head. A few models believe the Invest 95L will head due west and landfall will be near Nicaragua and possibly Honduras and dissipate. The other models like the Euro and the GFS believe 95L will slowdown and head WNW to NW and landfall will be around the Yucatan. With a strong trough coming down from the US this may pick this system up and the implications with that is this may be a strong tropical system that may head anywhere from Texas to the west coast of Florida. This is a system that needs to be watched carefully for the next 7 – 10 days. By then a much better forecast can be made.

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