recurve

Hurricane Earl & Tropical Storm Diona

Hurricane Earl has been in an environment for continuing intensification and has blown up today and is now a Category 4 storm. There will probably be times where there will be an ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) which is normal with a storm this strong. The intensification will be short term, probably 36-48 hours.

What was Invest 97L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fiona. Diona lack organization and the wind field is very large. The overall structure of Fiona is very poor and intensification will be slow. Most models are forecasting that Fiona may be a hurricane in 36-48 hours although the GFS model wants to dissipate Fiona is 2 or 3 days. The Models are still forecasting that Fiona will turn NW then N but there is a chance that the subtropical ridge will build back in and that will keep Diona from recurving. This is something forecasters will have to keep an eye on.

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