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Tropical Weather

Hurricane season ending?

At the moment there is nothing tropical and things seem to getting where conditions for tropical development will be difficult to do. Hopefully the hurricane season will be ending early.

There are some disorganized showers and thunderstorms within the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The GFS and the Canadian models are the only models that support any development. Even if that area does develop into something tropical, the synoptics are for whatever is there – will eventually head west and landfall near Nicaragua.

GFS Model at 156 hours
Canadian Model at 144 hours
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Tropical Weather

Was Invest 95L anything tropical?

Did Invest 95L ever meet the criteria to make it a depression or tropical storm? I say NO – it never met the criteria and was nothing but a rain maker with some significant winds.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

It the time of 1800 (zulu) – 95L had been a frontal boundary. At around 2100 -it detached from the front so it is now on it’s own. Under NHC criteria it requires the organized deep convection to persist for 12-24 hours. Only then if it still meets the criteria – the NHC may classifying a system as a Tropical Cyclone.

Just looking at the radar imagery at the time – it did not have a fully closed circulation. Also the convection was all SW of the “center”. Some people will argue these points and that’s fine – we all have are own feelings. But just using the NHC criteria guide lines  – 95L was just nothing but a  wet and windy storm.

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