Tropics Unusually Quiet…for now

With EX-Tropical Depression Five still hanging around the Gulf Coast and a few models want to bring it SW and back into the GOM for possible re-emergence and even worse, possible tropical redevelopment – I can’t say that TD#5 has dissipated. Hopefully that forecast will be bust.

Although, the tropics are somewhat quiet, there are a few systems that will be coming off of Africa that still need to be watched. These waves are somewhat large and at least one may have a chance to develop. The wave further to the north, will probably have problems with the SAL and also it will probably recurve out to the north. The other wave, just to the east of the first wave, is forecast to to head WSW and will be closer to the ITCZ and away from the SAL.

MET 9 satellite image

Satellite image of west Africa

SAL

This second wave, once it exits of the coast, this may have a good chance to develop. The MJO (the green in the graphic) in the Eastern Atlantic is in a upward motion which should help in the development.

MJO graphic

For the next month or so, the tropics will be at their peak, so storms will start to roll off off like trains, hopefully though none will have the chance for any landfall.

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